Apollo 1o


Can our grid handle rising demand from EVs and AI?
Thoughts (very experimental)
The user is asking about grid constraints associated with electric vehicles and AI data centers, both of which are contributing to unprecedented growth in energy demand.

Based upon extrapolation of historical demand trends and linear econometric relationships:

In 2024, total U.S. demand was 4,347 TWh¹ [1] U.S. Energy Information Administration.

For 2025, demand is estimated to be 4,419 TWh² 1.647% increase from '24 [2] EIA

For 2026, demand is predicted to be 4,492 TWh³ 1.645% increase from '25 [3] EIA


Legacy forecasts do not account for personal and commercial EVs...

GM — zero-emissions lineup by 2035 + 50% EV sales by 2030.
Hyundai Genesis — 100% electrification by 2040.
Volkswagen — 55% sales electric by 2030.
Ford — 2 million EVs annually by 2030.

Amazon — 100K Rivian delivery vans.
FedEx — zero-emissions by 2040.
UPS — partnership with Arrival.

Uber — electric fleet by 2030.
Lyft — fully electric fleet by 2030.
Tesla — autonomous robotaxis, Q3 2025.


Nor do they account for AI computational infrastructure...

Microsoft — $50+ billion 2025 CapEx for AI infrastructure.
Alphabet — $12.4 billion Q1 2025 alone, $50+ billion annually.
Amazon — $148 billion through 2040 for data centers, majority US.
Meta — 600,000 H100 GPU equivalent capacity, 350K H100s in 2024.


Let's see what utility providers & grid operators are saying about the numbers.

MISO, PJM, CAISO  fast-track processes for data center interconnection requests.

Utilities restructuring planning process around data center load  multi-billion $ expansions.

Growth expectations doubled between 2022-2024  reports of 15%+ CAGR at substation level.

2,500+ GW of new generation & storage awaiting interconnection  backlogs & processing capacity.


How should you feel about all of this?

EIA's forecasted growth of 50.4% through 2050   did they cut their research budget?

Best case scenario  demand 2x by 2050 (all good, 2x capacity with storage alone)

More realistic case  demand 3x to 4x by 2050 (don't worry, solar+BESS > BESS)